Financial Analysis of BLD Plantation Bhd

Financial Analysis of BLD Plantation Bhd 1.1 Sime Darby Plantation Bhd According to Sime Darby (2013), the Sime Darby Plantation is the plantation and agribusiness arm of Sime Darby Berhad, at which has incorporated over 15 countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and so on. It was founded in 1910 and growth to become the largest conglomerate in Malaysia. However, it is the one of largest palm oil producer in the world which produce 2.47 million tones of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) output annually. Bloomberg (n.d) states that Sime Darby Plantation Bhd was mainly engages in upstream activities such as oil palm and rubber plantation development, cultivation, and downstream activities. The company was involved in the manufacturing of oils and fats products, and other fast moving consumer goods. The company was incorporated in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia during 2004 with other offices in Indonesia and India (Bloomberg, n.d). Besides, its downstream operations are divided into 2 sectors, that is food and nonfood. For food sector, CPO was manufactured into different types of oils and fat products such as cooking oil, margarine and cooking fats. The company also produces the customized products to meet their customers need and satisfaction. In nonfood sector, it was involved in the manufacturing of oleochemicals and biodiesel. In 2016, the company has commenced the first large scale planting of Genome Select high yielding oil palms, which allow themselves to produce mire oil in existing land. 1.2 BLD Plantation Bhd The BLD Plantation Bhd (BLDP) was incorporated in Malaysia as a public limited company under the Companies Act 1965 in October 2001. It was listed on main market of Bursa Malaysia under plantation sector on 2003 and served as parent company to Bintulu Lumber Development Sdn Bhd, Grand Mutual Sdn Bhd, and so on. According to Worldwide Company Profile (2011), the company was principally engaged in investing holding and provision of management services whereas the principal activities of group are cultivation of oil palm, processing of fresh fruit bunches and sales of related products. The Sarawak based BLD Plantation Group was mainly involved in cultivation of oil palm, processing of fresh fruit bunches into CPO and related products. The company was also involved in cattle farming and timber business but it has gradually declined and phased out in 2004. However, the company has produces the CPO and palm kernel (PK) and only sold to Bintulu Edible Oils Sdn Bhd (BEO), which is the major palm oil refinery in Sarawak. 1.3 Riverview Rubber Estates Bhd Riverview Rubber Estates Bhd is a publicly traded company which operates in the agricultural sector in Malaysia (Worldwide Company Profile, 2012). It was mainly involved in the cultivation of oil palm. However, it was incorporated in 1936 and has registered Headquarter in Ipoh, Malaysia. In 2006, the company had produced approximately 43,651 tons of fresh fruit bunches. Moreover, it was interested in two associated companies, that is Narborough Plantations company which is interests in the operation of oil palm plantations and Rivaknar Holdings Sdn Bhd which principally involved in investment holding. Riverview Rubber Estates is listed on Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad and London Stock Exchange (Worldwide Company Profile, 2012). 1.4 IJM Plantation Bhd IJM is one of Malaysias leading conglomerates which was listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad. The company has embraced the theme Nurturing Sustainability for its long-term success in agribusiness that are related to oil palm supply chain. However, they have their own vision and mission statements. Their vision statement is To be a leading regional plantation group while the mission statements is To uphold the highest standards of performance in our plantation and agribusiness. The companys theme Nurturing sustainability remain their long term success in oil palm business venture. As the group progresses, it has adopted and implemented strategies to embrace the pillar of performance, the productivity and innovations, and the care for environment. IJM Plantation Berhad was also listed on Bursa Malaysia in 2003. However, it represents one of the 5 main division of IJM group. 1.5 Innoprise Plantation Berhad The Innoprise Plantation Berhad is a Sabah based company listed on main board of Bursa Malaysia (RSPO, n.d). The company was undertaking planting and development at which have approximately 22,763 hectares of forest reserves land in Tawau, Sabah. However, the company has disposed the downstream wood product assets and start to refocus on oil palm. The company was planning to complete planting at which estimated 13,929 hectares of planted oil palm in 2013. In 2006, the company was entered into contract with its major shareholder, Rakyat Berjaya Sdn Bhd to log over 30,000 hectares of Kuamut Forest Reserve over 10 years. This operation is to provide medium term revenue and partial funding for companys oil palm development project. Besides, Innoprise Group was highly emphasized on Corporate Social Responsibility as it recognizes the community, employees and the environment as stakeholders. With the limited resources, the company will continue to make contribution towards development of t he community especially education, sports and poverty alleviation. No. Company Name Data 1 Sime Darby Plantation 0.00221000 2 BLD Plantation 0.00893000 3 Riverview Rubber Estate 0.00599135 4 IJM Plantation 0.00552490 5 Innoprise Plantation BHD 0.01047740 6 KLCI 0.00289210 3.1 Expected Return Based on the expected return table above, we can know that the highest expected return among few companies from 2007 to 2016 is Innoprise Plantation Bhd. On the other hand, the lowest expected return among few companies from 2007 to 2016 is Sime Darby Plantation. Expected return is the amount of profit or loss that an investor expected on the investment that has various known or called as expected rates of return. Expected return is important to be calculate. This is because it can predict the future value of a portfolio and provide guidance from which to measure actual returns. Expected return is always calculate based on the historical data and is not guaranteed. (Investopedia, 2017) Expected return is also known as a process of determining the average expected probability of different types of rates of return that are possible on a given assets. There are some factors to determine the expected return which are different market conditions and an assets beta. (BusinessDictionary.com, 2017). The most important factor that affect the expected return is the stock price. The formula that calculate expected return is as below: Expected return, E(r)= 1/ TÆ ©t=1 r(i,j) Innoprise Plantation Bhd has a highest expected return from 2007 to 2016 compared to these companies. High expected return indicates that the higher risk, the higher the volatility and return potential. (Chirantan Basu, 1995). Based on the historical data, we can know that the highest price among these few year was RM1.85546 on July 2012 while the lowest was RM0.28545 on Dec 2008. Moreover, we can know that the stock price for each month has changed drastically especially the stock price has increased from RM0.46624 per share to RM0.942 per share on April 2010 according to the historical data. It increased by RM0.47576 per share on that time. On 12 April 2010, according to the Capital Reconstruction Exercise, the existing issued and paid-up share capital of the company of RM112,500,000 comprising 112,500,000 ordinary shares which are RM1 per share was reduced to RM 56,250,000 comprising 112,500,000 ordinary share of the company. Therefore, the entire paid-up share capital of 112,500,000 ordinary shares of RM0.50 per share were consolidated into 56,250,000 ordinary shares which are RM1 per share. (Annual Report of Innoprise Plantation Bhd, 2010) Subsequent to the Capital Reconstruction Exercise, the issued and paid up ordinary share capital of the company was increased from RM56,250,000 to RM188,611,300 by the way of the issuance of 132,361,300 ordinary shares which are RM1 per share for cash based on the Rights Issue Exercies for working capital purposes. The new ordinary shares have the same right in all respects with the existing shares of the company. (Annual Report of Innoprise Plantation Bhd, 2010) On the other hand, Sime Darby Plantation Bhd has lowest expected return from 2007 to 2016 compared to these few companies. Based on the historical data, we can know that the highest price among these few year was RM11.90 on January 2016 while the lowest price was RM5.20 on January 2015. Based on the graph of stock price from 2007 to 2016 in Sime Darby Plantation Bhd in appendix, we can know that the stock price among these few year were moved stability from 2007 to 2014. Start from 2015 to 2016, it was dramatically changed. The highest expected return in Sime Darby was 0.24064 on November 2015. The stock price was increased from RM9.35 per share to RM11.60 per share suddenly at that period. During the financial year 2015, the company increased its issued and paid-up ordinary share capital from RM3,032,053,404 to RM3,105,579,143 by the way of issuance of 147,051,477 new ordinary shares of RM0.50 per share at an issue price of RM8.94 per share amounting to RM1,314.6 million, according to the Dividend Reinvestment Plan of the company. The new ordinary shares have the same right in all respects with the existing shares of the company. (Annual Report of Sime Darby Plantation Bhd, 2015) No. Company Name Data 1 Sime Darby Plantation 0.05695000 2 BLD Plantation 0.06363000 3 Riverview Rubber Estate 0.00709225 4 IJM Plantation 0.00681400 5 Innoprise Plantation BHD 0.00938350 6 KLCI 0.03652390 3.2 Standard Deviation In finance, standard deviation is commonly explained as the annual rate of return of an investment to measure the investments volatility. We calculate the standard deviation of different company by using the formula below.    Standard Deviation = [1/n * (ri rave)2] ½   Ã‚   Where:ri = actual rate of returnrave = average rate of returnn = number of time periods Standard deviation is important for an investor to make investment decision. Why do we say so? Because standard deviation measure the dispersion about an average, illustrating how widely a return may varied over time. Therefore, investor tend to predict the range of rate of return by using the standard deviation of historical performance. For an example, a fund or stock with high standard deviation of rate of return, the predicted range of performance is vast, resulting in higher volatility. Without standard deviation, you cannot define or evaluate whether a data given is to the average or the data is spread out over a wide range. On the other hand, by using standard deviation, investor can have a much clear expectation of an investment before doing any investment decision. If a funds return follow the normal distribution, approximately 68% of the time will fall within one standard deviation of the mean return and approximately 98% of the time within two standard deviation. (Morningstar Investing Glossary) Lets say if fund A have an expected annual return of 20% and its standard deviation is 4%, then investor would expect a return between 16% and 24% about 68% of the time and between 12% and 28% about 98% of the time. From the table above, we can see that BLD Plantation has the highest standard deviation compare to the other four company. As we know that, higher standard deviation means that the investment will differ a lot from the average return. In other word, you can make high return from the investment but also make big loss in the investment as the return is high the risk is also high. BLD Plantation have the highest standard deviation, therefore the company may provide higher return but the level of variation is high which mean the investment return is not consistent. Investment in this company may have higher risk compare to the other 4 company. With a standard deviation of 6.36%, which mean the investment return may differ from the mean about 6.36% lower or higher. In the other hand, we can see that IJM Plantation has the lowest standard deviation compare to the other four company. It means that IJM Plantation may be generating lower investment return but the volatility is low which large variation are unlikely to occur. An investor who do not want to take higher risk will invest in this company as the lower standard deviation can prevent the investor to lose too much as it doesnt deviate from the mean value too much. Although BLD Plantation has the highest standard deviation, but looking at the standard deviation as a whole, these five companies still consider as company with low standard deviation in generating investment return. No. Company Name Data 1 SD vs BLD -0.000166 2 SD vs RV -0.000272 3 SD vs IJM -0.000168 4 SD vs Inno -0.000533 5 SD vs KLCI -0.000201 6 BLD vs RV 0.001854 7 BLD vs IJM 0.002451 8 BLD vs Inno 0.003689 9 BLD vs KLCI 0.001275 10 RV vs IJM 0.001862 11 RV vs Inno 0.001465 12 RV vs KLCI 0.000785 13 IJM vs Inno 0.001725 14 IJM vs KLCI 0.001340 15 Inno vs KLCI 0.002270 3.3 Covariance SD Sime Darby BLD BLD RV Riverview IJM IJM Inno Innoprise KLCI KLCI Based on the covariance table above, we can know that the highest covariance from 2007 to 2016 among these few companies is BLD Plantation Bhd versus Innoprise Plantation Bhd. On the other hand, the lowest covariance from 2007 to 2016 among these few companies is Sime Darby Plantation Bhd versus Innoprise Plantation Bhd. Covariance is a measurement of how much two random variables vary together. It is almost like variance but variance only give the information about the single variable varies while covariance give the information about the two variables vary together. A large covariance indicates that a strong relationship between variables while a weak covariance indicates that a strong relationship between variables in a different data set with different scales. (Statistics How To, 2017) We calculate the covariance to measure the linear relationship between two variables and understand the direction of the relationship between variables. Covariance figures are not standardized. Hence, the covariance figure can range from negative figure until infinity to positive figure until infinity. (Minitab Express, 2016). In a simply words, the positive covariance indicate that the two variables are moving together or varying directly while the negative covariance indicate that the two variables are moving in the opposite direction or varying inversely. (BusinessDictionary.com, 2017) Based on the table above, we can know that BLD plantation Bhd and Innoprise Plantation Bhd have positive covariance which is 0.003689. It indicates that both companies tend to increase together. By looking the graph of stock price from 2007 to 2016 in BLD Plantation Bhd and Innoprise Plantation Bhd in appendix, we can see that both companies has increased and decreased at the same direction. When BLD Plantation Bhd has increased the stock price which from RM8.38 per share to RM8.64 per share on July 2012, Innoprise Plantation Bhd has also increased the stock price which from RM1.42728 per share to RM1.85546 per share on July 2012. This shows that both companies had moving together and grow at the same direction. By the calculation of covariance among these two companies, we can know that these companies have strong relationship between each other. In contrast, Sime Darby Plantation Bhd and Innoprise Plantation Bhd have negative covariance which is -0.000533. It indicates that one of these companies tend to increase as the other companies decrease. By looking the graph of stock price from 2007 to 2016 among Sime Darby Plantation and Innoprise Plantation Bhd, we can know that Sime Darbys stock price remained slightly from 2007 to 2014 and had fluctuated from 2015 to 2016. On the other hand, stock price in Innoprise Plantation Bhd has fluctuated from 2007 to 2016. This indicates that both of the companies did not have increase or decrease at the same direction. Hence, Sime Darby Plantation Bhd and Innoprise Plantation Bhd have negative covariance. When Sime Darby Plantation Bhd has increased from RM9.35 per share to RM11.60 per share on November 2015, Innoprise Plantation Bhd has decreased from RM1.40824 per share to RM1.3226 per share on November 2015. This shows that both companies had moving in the opposite direction. No. Company Name Data 1 Sime Darby Plantation -0.15067000 2 BLD Plantation 0.95540000 3 Riverview Rubber Estate 0.58830585 4 IJM Plantation 1.00599700 5 Innoprise Plantation BHD 1.70142429 3.4 Beta Beta is commonly defined as a measure of the volatility or the systematic risk of a portfolio or securities comparing with the market as a whole. In other word, beta values are also considering as a tool used to compare each individual stock to the market performance by evaluating the relationship of a stock movement with the market itself. Beta values are one of the several values that investor use to analyse the companys risk profile. Different companies have different beta value due to different industry, different customer or different function. All these may affect the beta values of a company. Company with beta value close to 1 or equal to one are commonly found in the large companies with numerous operating segment. The demand of the product of these companies usually increase and decrease proportional to the aggregate to the economic expansion or contraction. However, companies that are related to pharmaceutical or healthcare usually have beta value less than 1. The demand of suck companys products is inelastic. This causes people hard to stop buying them or find a substitute for such product. This makes the company always have a steadily earnings and lead to low volatility in stock price. Companies with beta value have the highest volatility in stock price. These companies tend to react better than the market or worse than the market. We can take companies in cyclical industries such as airline company as an example with high beta values. When the economy contract or slow down, people will have no money to demand for travel and stock price will decrease dramatically, an d vice versa. This result in higher volatile earnings and the movement of share price. According to the data above, we can say that the beta is categorized in three groups which are higher than 1, between 0 and 1, and below 0. Beta is known as a measurement of a stocks volatility in relation to the market. There are two company that come with beta higher than 1 which are the IJM Plantation and Innoprise Plantation BHD. Innoprise Plantation has the highest beta value which is 1.70 follow by IJM Plantation with beta value of 1.006. Based on this value, we can say that Innoprise Plantation BHD stock is theoretically 70.14% more volatile than the market and IJM Plantation stocks is 0.6% more volatile than the market. This indicate that when there is a 10% increase in the stock market, stocks price for Innoprise Plantation BHD will increase by approximately 17% and also approximately 10.06% for IJM Plantation. This concept applies to the condition when market goes down too. These two company with beta value higher than 1 tends to perform better than the market when the mark et goes up and when the market slow down, the company will perform even worse compare to the market. With the beta value between 0 and 1 is BLD Plantation and Riverview Rubber Estate. Beta value for BLD plantation is 0.96 and 0.59 for Riverview Rubber Estate. These two companies are the companies with volatilities lower than the market, which means that BLD Plantation and Riverview Rubber Estate are theoretically less volatile than the market. If the market increase by 10%, BLD Plantation stocks price will increase only 9.6% and for Riverview Rubber Estate, the stock price will only increase by 5.9%. This also means that the company have a steadily earnings stream and lower volatility of the stock. The last company is the Sime Darby Plantation with a beta value lower than 0 which is a negative beta value. The beta value for Sime Darby Plantation is -0.15. A negative beta correlation indicates that the stock price will go in the opposite direction with the market situation. When the market rise about 10%, the stock price for Sime Darby will decrease about 1.5%, and vice versa. Conservative or safe playing investor will consider about BLD Plantation and Riverview Rubber Estate as the lower betas limit the volatility. Beta value of companies are one of the important element in the formula of capital asset pricing model which is known as CAPM. As how much diversify our investment is, there will be still some risk within it. So, as an investor, they claim that by taking the risk there must deserve a rate of return. By using CAPM, we can calculate the investment risk and what rate of return are we expecting from the investment. 3.5 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model that describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks. (Investopedia, 2017) CAPM is used to calculate the required rate of return for any risky assets. Required rate of return is a rate of total return needed to be compensated for the risk taken which is made up of a risk-free rate and risk premium. (Finance, 2009) The required rate of return is also an increase in value that should be expect to see based on the risk level of the assets. (InvestingAnswer, 2017) CAPM is an idealized portrayal of how financial markets fix the price of the securities and determine expected returns on capital investments. By using CAPM, it provides a methodology for quantifying risk and translating the risk into the estimated of expected return on equity. (David W.Muslim,Jr, 1982). The model says that the only reason that an investor should earn more on average by investing in one stock rather than another stock is that the stock is riskier. By the CAPM calculation, we can know that the required rate of return among these five companies is 0.0235305. We have use the beta information to calculate the required rate of return. The weight of these five companies are the same which are 0.1. According the CAPM, the beta is the only relevant measurement of a stocks risk. By knowing the beta, then we can get the required rate of return. In this case, required rate of return which is 2.35% is greater than risk-free which is 2.33% that stated. Hence, we should not invest in this portfolio. This is because we need to have higher rate to get back the return. To conclude all the information and analysis, the highest expected return among the few companies from 2007 to 2016 is Innoprise Plantation Bhd and the lowest expected return among few companies from 2007 to 2016 is Sime Darby Plantation. With the higher expected return, higher risk, the higher the volatility and return potential. Means Innoprise Plantation Bhd has the highest risk and highest volatility and return potential and Sime Darby Plantation has the lowest risk and lowest volatility and return potential. The highest Standard deviation among the few companies from 2007 to 2016 is BLD Plantation and the lowest standard deviation is IJM Plantation. The higher standard deviation means that the investment will differ a lot from the average return. Which means the BLD Plantation can provide higher return but the level of variation and risk is higher compare to other 4 companies. The IJM Plantation has lowest standard deviation means the company generating lower return but the level of variation and risk is lower to prevent too much loss. The highest covariance from 2007 to 2016 among these few companies is BLD Plantation Bhd versus Innoprise Plantation Bhd. On the other hand, the lowest covariance from 2007 to 2016 among these few companies is Sime Darby Plantation Bhd versus Innoprise Plantation Bhd. . A large covariance indicates that a strong relationship between variables while a weak covariance indicates that a strong relationship between variables in a different data set with different scales. Beta values are considering as a tool used to compare each individual stock to the market performance by evaluating the relationship of a stock movement with the market itself. Beta values are one of the several values that investor use to analyse the companys risk profile. The beta value can be categorized into three group, higher than 1, between 0 and 1, and less than 1. There are two company that come with beta higher than 1 which are the IJM Plantation and Innoprise Plantation BHD. Innoprise Plantation has the highest beta value which is 1.70 follow by IJM Plantation with beta value of 1.0. With the beta value between 0 and 1 is BLD Plantation and Riverview Rubber Estate. Beta value for BLD plantation is 0.96 and 0.59 for Riverview Rubber Estate The last company is the Sime Darby Plantation with a beta value lower than 0 which is a negative beta value and the beta value is -0.15. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model that describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for assets, particularly stocks. By using the CAPM calculation, we can know that the required rate of return among these five companies is 0.0235305. Based on the evaluation of each company from (c), the lowest expected rate of return was Sime Darby Plantation, given by 0.00221000. The highest expected rate of return was Innoprise Plantation BHD, 0.01047740. The average expected rate of return of these five companies was 0.00662673 whereas the required rate of return was 0.0235305. For a good investment, the expected rate of return has to be higher than the required rate of return. To improve the situation, there are a few strategies taken by each of the companies to drive their operational efficiency, seek out investment while maintaining their capital discipline. Sime Darby Plantation planned to extend sustainable supply chain to include small producers since year 2016. Under the partnership, the supply of small producers will be secured. Sime Darby Plantation collaborate with Wild Asia to assist the rest of the small producers to achieve RSPO certification. As one of the worlds largest plantation company, Sime Darby manufactures, sales and marketing activities of oils and fats products, oleochemicals, palm oil-based biodiesel and other palm oil derivatives (Sime Darby News, 2016). The variety involvement of Sime Darby Plantation helps to improve the companys performance whether in short-term or long-term. Besides that, BLD Plantation had entered into a share sale agreement in year 2016 to acquire the entire 1.1 million shares of RM 1.00 each in the share capital of Pekan for RM 155.22 million. Since the agreement, BLD Plantation has conducted due diligence and it is still